Like the Blowout Principle is the mathematical undermining of the Slate delegate calculator, the Closed/Open Principle is undermining turnout predictions for the remaining states.
A couple weeks ago, I wrote a diary that attempted to predict turnout, but it wasn't a full analysis. I believed it a sounder model than those predicters who were merely throwing spaghetti at the wall, because I tied the turnout to congressional districts and past performance in the 2008 primary cycle, distinguishing between closed and open/semi-open primaries and comparing like to like.
Still, I began seeing different numbers and methods around the web. Over at Open Left, fladem tied predictions of turnout straightforwardly to 2004 GE Kerry performance. PA turnout was pegged at 75% of 2004 Kerry GE turnout, based on an average of 64% of Kerry turnout in primaries and 80% of Kerry turnout in primaries post-Super Tuesday. I wanted to take a closer look because some 2004 GE states were battlegrounds and others were not.
